实物期权估值方法能反映风险项目的机会价值和高度不确定性，但实际风险项目往
往包含多个、多期的期权，各期权相互影响，不能简单相加，因而难以应用。文章通过蒙特
卡罗模拟，实证研究了当风险项目包含复合多重实物期权时，其估值的一般方法。分析了包
含一个扩张期权、一个复合交换型期权和一个普通复合期权的风险项目灵活性价值，并讨论
了期权的相互作用和期权价值对变量的敏感性。

Real
option method can be used to appropriately valuate opportunity and highly uncer
tainty of a risky project.But most real projects contain sequential and multiple
real options,and theses interacted options cannot be simply added together.As a
result,the application of real option method is difficult.Using Monte-Carlo sim
ulation,we empirically researched how to valuate highly uncertain projects based
on sequential and multiple real options.In this paper,we analyzed the flexibili
ty value of a complex project,including a expand call option,a compound exchange
option and an ordinary compound option.Further more,we studied option interacti
ons and sensitivities of the total option value to its underlying variables.