为更好实现上海“十二五”规划目标，满足未来物流人才供求平衡，根据1970～2009年上海第 三产业从业人员数据，借助基于灰色预测模型和时间序列预测分析的组合预测模型，预测“ 十二五”期间上海物流人才需求量；通过对上海开设物流相关专业的院校进行逐一考察，进 一步得到上海物流人才有效供给量。发现上海物流人才在“十二五”期间出现供不应求现象 ，并从政府、高校、企业三方面提出缓解上海物流人才供求缺口的具体措施。

To b
etter achieve the objectives of the twelve five-year-plan and to meet the supply
and demand of the future logistics talents of Shanghai,this paper uses the comb
ination forecast model of grey fore cast model and time series prediction model
to predict the demand of the logistics talents of Shanghai based on the data of
tertiary industry employees during 1970～2009.The effective supply has been fore
casted after the study of logistics-related professional colleges of Shanghai.Co
mparing the demand and supply situation of the logistics talentes during the twe
lve five-year-plan,this paper found the phenomenon that the demand of the logist
ics talents of Shanghai would exceed the supply of it,in addition,corresponding
measures have been proposed from the government,universities,and enterprises asp
ects to ease the demand and supply gap during the twelve five-year-plan.