蛛网膜下腔出血院内病死率的预测模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2024.02.024

首都医科大学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 348-355.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2024.02.024

蛛网膜下腔出血院内病死率的预测模型

庹琳¹, 包小源^2*

1.北京大学医学部医院管理处，北京 100191；2.北京大学医学部临床医学高等研究院医学信息学中心, 北京 100191

收稿日期:2024-02-23 出版日期:2024-04-21 发布日期:2024-04-25
通讯作者: 包小源 E-mail:xybao@pku.edu.cn

A risk model to predict the in-hospital mortality of subarachnoid hemorrhage

Tuo Lin¹, Bao Xiaoyuan^2*

1.Hospital Management Department, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China；2.Medical Informatics Center, Institute of Advanced Clinical Medicine, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China

Received:2024-02-23 Online:2024-04-21 Published:2024-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的蛛网膜下腔出血是一种很严重的疾病，有着较高的致死率和致残率。本研究旨在研发一种模型预测蛛网膜下腔出血的院内病死率。方法本研究数据来自于2014年至2018年就诊于北京大学10所附属医院的患者的相关资料，最终纳入797例诊断为蛛网膜下腔出血的患者。采用单变量和多变量Logistic回归，探究影响蛛网膜下腔出血预后的影响因素，用列线图来预测院内病死率。结果在纳入的患者中，院内病死率为7.53%。影响因素包括动脉瘤、心脏病、脑疝、脑内血肿、昏迷、肺部感染、呼吸衰竭和肺炎（P值均<0.05）。预测模型的曲线下面积为0.860 (95%CI：0.809~0.911)。结论本研究构建了一个能够预测蛛网膜下腔患者的院内病死率的模型。

关键词: 蛛网膜下腔出血, 列线图, 院内病死率, 风险模型

Abstract: Objective Subarachnoid hemorrhage is a severe disease with high mortality and disability rate. The aim of this study is to develop a model to predict the in-hospital mortality of subarachnoid hemorrhage. Methods Seven hundred and ninty-seven patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage are extracted from 10 hospitals affiliated to Peking University during a 5-year period (2014-2018). A univariate Logistic regression and a multivariate Logistic regression are used to find the predictive factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage. A nomogram was constructed to predict the mortality. Results Of the included patients, the mortality rate is 7.53%. The predictors are aneurysm, heart disease, brain herniation, intracerebral hematoma, coma, pulmonary infection, respiratory failure and pneumonia (P<0.05). The area under the curve of the nomogram is 0.860 (95%CI：0.809-0.911). Conclusion An accurate nomogram is developed to predict the in-hospital mortality of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage. It will help reduce the mortality rates.

Key words: subarachnoid hemorrhage, nomogram, hospital mortality, risk model

中图分类号:

R543

庹琳, 包小源. 蛛网膜下腔出血院内病死率的预测模型[J]. 首都医科大学学报, 2024, 45(2): 348-355.

Tuo Lin, Bao Xiaoyuan. A risk model to predict the in-hospital mortality of subarachnoid hemorrhage[J]. Journal of Capital Medical University, 2024, 45(2): 348-355.

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蛛网膜下腔出血院内病死率的预测模型

A risk model to predict the in-hospital mortality of subarachnoid hemorrhage

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