2013至2018年北京地区1型糖尿病发病率性别差异及预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2023.03.002

首都医科大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 370-374.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2023.03.002

• 内分泌研究与临床实践 • 上一篇下一篇

2013至2018年北京地区1型糖尿病发病率性别差异及预测

刘畅^1,2，郭默宁³，袁颖超^1,2，郑建鹏³，杨金奎^1,2*

1.首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院内分泌科, 北京 100730；2.北京市糖尿病研究所，北京 100730；3.北京市卫生健康大数据与政策研究中心，北京 100034

收稿日期:2023-03-01 出版日期:2023-06-21 发布日期:2023-06-08
通讯作者: 杨金奎 E-mail: jkyang@ccmu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（8151101058， 81930019）

Gender differences and the prediction of type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Beijing from 2013 to 2018

Liu Chang^1,2, Guo Moning³, Yuan Yingchao^1,2, Zheng Jianpeng³, Yang Jinkui ^1,2*

1. Department of Endocrinology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100730, China; 2. Beijing Diabetes Institute, Beijing 100730, China; 3. Beijing Municipal Health Big Data and Policy Research Center, Beijing 100034, China

Received:2023-03-01 Online:2023-06-21 Published:2023-06-08
Supported by:
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (8151101058， 81930019).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2013年至2018年北京地区常住人口1型糖尿病（type 1 diabetes，T1DM）发病率的性别差异。方法 2013年至2018年，北京市16个区153个中心（常住人口每年约2 012万）共有新发T1DM患者4 275例。采用泊松回归、Joinpoint等方法计算T1DM的年发病率，各年龄组、性别的年发病率，评估T1DM发病率趋势及其与年龄、性别的关系。使用灰色预测模型1,1 ［Gray Model 1,1, GM(1,1) ］，按性别预测未来10年T1DM的发病率。结果 2013—2018年这6年内北京地区常住人口中T1DM的年发病率从3.10/（10万）［95％CI:3.10（2.90，3.30）］增加到3.60/（10万）［95％CI:3.60（3.56，3.86）］。男性和女性T1DM的发病率均增加，但女性增加的幅度更大［男性年发病率变化（annual percentage change, APC）：3.96％，女性APC：4.4％(P<0.05)］。性别是影响T1DM发病率的危险因素。按这一趋势到2024年，北京T1DM年发病率男性将增加到4.96/（10万），女性将增加到5.10/（10万）。结论北京市的T1DM发病率相对较低，男性和女性的T1DM发病率均迅速增加，女性发病率升高更明显，迫切需要社会和政府的关注及进一步的监测和研究，以更好地了解可能的风险因素并制定预防策略。

关键词: 北京市, 1型糖尿病, 发病率, 预测发病率

Abstract: Objective To study the incidence of type 1 diabetes （T1DM） among males and females among permanent residents in Beijing from 2013 to 2018. Methods From 2013 to 2018, 4 275 new patients with T1DM were diagnosed in 153 centers in 16 districts of Beijing (representing a permanent population of about 20.12 million people per year). The annual incidence of T1DM and the annual incidence rate with 95% confidence interval (CI) by age group and gender were calculated by using Poisson regression and other methods. The relationship was evaluated between the incidence trend of T1DM and the age and gender. We use the gray prediction model (1, 1) ［GM (1, 1)］ to predict the incidence of T1DM in the future. Results The incidence of T1DM in the permanent population of Beijing increased from 3.10 per 100 000 ［95%CI: 3.10 (2.90, 3.30) ］ to 3.60 per 100 000 ［95%CI: 3.60 (3.56, 3.86) ］ within 6 years. The incidence of T1DM increased in both male and female ［annual percentage change (APC) in male: 3.96%, APC in female: 4.4%, (P<0.05)］. Gender was a risk factor affecting the incidence of T1DM. By 2024, the incidence of new T1DM in Beijing would increase to 4.96 per 100 000 for male, and for female 5.10 per 100 000. Conclusion The incidence of T1DM in Beijing is relatively low, but the incidence of T1DM in both males and females is increasing rapidly. The incidence of males is higher than that of females, but the incidence of females is more obvious, which urgently needs the attention of the society and the government. Further surveillance and research is needed to better understand possible risk factors and develop prevention strategies.

Key words: Beijing, type 1 diabetes （T1DM）, incidence, predicted incidence

中图分类号:

R589

刘畅, 郭默宁, 袁颖超, 郑建鹏, 杨金奎. 2013至2018年北京地区1型糖尿病发病率性别差异及预测[J]. 首都医科大学学报, 2023, 44(3): 370-374.

Liu Chang, Guo Moning, Yuan Yingchao, Zheng Jianpeng, Yang Jinkui . Gender differences and the prediction of type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Beijing from 2013 to 2018[J]. Journal of Capital Medical University, 2023, 44(3): 370-374.

参考文献

［1］Karvonen M, Viik-Kajander M, Moltchanova E, et al. Incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes worldwide. Diabetes Mondiale (DiaMond) Project Group［J］. Diabetes Care,2000,23(10):1516－1526.
［2］Patterson C C, Dahlquist G G, Gyurus E, et al. Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989－2003 and predicted new cases 2005－20: a multicentre prospective registration study［J］. Lancet,2009,373(9680):2027－2033.
［3］Yang Z, Wang K, Li T, et al. Childhood diabetes in China. Enormous variation by place and ethnic group［J］. Diabetes Care,1998,21(4):525－529.
［4］Group D P. Incidence and trends of childhood type 1 diabetes worldwide 1990－1999［J］. Diabet Med,2006,23(8):857－866.
［5］Weng J, Zhou Z, Guo L, et al. Incidence of type 1 diabetes in China, 2010－13: population based study［J］. BMJ, 2018,360:j5295.
［6］Liu C, Yuan Y C, Guo M N, et al. Incidence of type 1 diabetes may be underestimated in the Chinese population: evidence from 21.7 million people between 2007 and 2017［J］. Diabetes Care, 2021,44(11):2503－2509.
［7］Park Y, Wintergerst K A, Zhou Z. Clinical heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes (T1D) found in Asia［J］. Diabetes Metab Res Rev, 2017,33(7).
［8］Wu H B, Zhong J M, Hu R Y, et al. Rapidly rising incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0－19 years in Zhejiang, China, 2007 to 2013［J］. Diabet Med, 2016,33(10):1339－1346.
［9］Lu C L, Shen H N, Chen H F, et al. Epidemiology of childhood type 1 diabetes in Taiwan, 2003 to 2008［J］. Diabet Med, 2014,31(6):666－673.
［10］Zhao Z, Sun C, Wang C, et al. Rapidly rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Chinese population: epidemiology in Shanghai during 1997－2011［J］. Acta Diabetol, 2014,51(6):947－953.
［11］Harjutsalo V, Sjoberg L, Tuomilehto J. Time trends in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Finnish children: a cohort study［J］. Lancet, 2008,371(9626):1777－1782.
［12］Mayer-Davis E J, Lawrence J M, Dabelea D, et al. Incidence trends of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youths, 2002－2012［J］. N Engl J Med, 2017,376(15):1419－1429.
［13］Li X H, Li T L, Yang Z, et al. A nine-year prospective study on the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in China［J］. Biomed Environ Sci, 2000,13(4):263－270.
［14］Hu Y C. A genetic-algorithm-based remnant grey prediction model for energy demand forecasting［J］. PLoS One, 2017,12(10):e0185478.
［15］Gong C, Meng X, Jiang Y, et al. Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus incidence in Beijing from 1995 to 2010: a retrospective multicenter study based on hospitalization data［J］. Diabetes Technol Ther, 2015,17(3):159－165.
［16］Yao B, Chen X, Shen F X, et al. The incidence of posttransplantation diabetes mellitus during follow-up in kidney transplant recipients and relationship to Fok1 vitamin D receptor polymorphism［J］. Transplant Proc, 2013,45(1):194－196.
［17］Berhan Y, Waernbaum I, Lind T, et al. Thirty years of prospective nationwide incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes: the accelerating increase by time tends to level off in Sweden［J］. Diabetes, 2011,60(2):577－581.［18］Patterson C C, Gyurus E, Rosenbauer J, et al. Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989－2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase［J］. Diabetologia, 2012,55(8):2142－2147.
［19］Islam S T, Srinivasan S, Craig M E. Environmental determinants of type 1 diabetes: a role for overweight and insulin resistance［J］. J Paediatr Child Health, 2014,50(11):874－879.
［20］Forga Llenas L, Goni Iriarte M J, Cambra Contin K,et al. Incidence and temporal trends of childhood type 1 diabetes between 1975 and 2012 in Navarre (Spain) ［J］. Gac Sanit, 2015,29(1):51－54.
［21］Onda Y, Sugihara S, Ogata T, et al. Incidence and prevalence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in Japan: the T1D study［J］. Diabet Med, 2017,34(7):909－915.
［22］Lawrence J M, Imperatore G, Dabelea D, et al. Trends in incidence of type 1 diabetes among non-Hispanic white youth in the U.S., 2002－2009［J］. Diabetes, 2014,63(11):3938－3945.
［23］Catanzariti L, Faulks K, Moon L, et al. Australias national trends in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in 0－14-year-olds, 2000－2006［J］. Diabet Med, 2009,26(6):596－601.
［24］Harjutsalo V, Sund R, Knip M, et al. Incidence of type 1 diabetes in Finland［J］. JAMA, 2013,310(4):427－428.
［25］Mayer-Davis E J, Dabelea D, Lawrence J M. Incidence trends of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youths, 2002－2012［J］. N Engl J Med, 2017,377(3):301.
［26］Kubin M, Tossavainen P, Hannula V, et al. Prevalence of retinopathy in Finnish children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes: a cross-sectional population-based retrospective study［J］. Arch Dis Child, 2011,96(10):963－968.
［27］Winkler C, Krumsiek J, Buettner F, et al. Feature ranking of type 1 diabetes susceptibility genes improves prediction of type 1 diabetes［J］. Diabetologia, 2014,57(12):2521－2529.
［28］Afshin A, Forouzanfar M, Reitsma M, et al. Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years［J］. N Engl J Med, 2017,377(1):13－27.

2013至2018年北京地区1型糖尿病发病率性别差异及预测

Gender differences and the prediction of type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Beijing from 2013 to 2018

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 1

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价