关键词: 高血压, 风险评估, Logistic回归, ROC曲线, 列线图

Abstract: Objective  To predict the 7-year risk of hypertension among people who underwent physical examination in functional units in Beijing, and to provide foundation data for prevention of hypertension. Methods  A total of 29 209 people in health management cohort in Beijing in 2020 were selected as research subjects. Based on the information of hypertension incidence, demography, behavior habits and blood index from 2014 to 2020, we use monofactor analysis to choose the risk factors, and establish the risk assessment model for hypertension by Logistic regression, then draw the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to verify the predictive ability of the model. Results  The number of new cases of  hypertension in 7 years were 2 346, the incidence of hypertension was 8.03%; the variables were used to establish a Logistic regression model, and the final model included six variables including parental history of hypertension, body mass index, gender, marriage, exercise intensity and milk drinking frequency. The area under the ROC curve was 0.736. Conclusion  The 7-year risk of hypertension is higher in functional unit population in Beijing, and parental history of hypertension, body mass index (BMI), gender, marriage, exercise intensity and milk drinking frequency are the risk factors for hypertension. Based on this, the risk assessment and prediction model is constructed. 

Key words: hypertension, risk assessment, Logistic regression, ROC curve, nomogram