关键词: 结肠癌, 分布滞后模型, 分布滞后效应

Abstract: Objective To investigate the distributed-lag effect of red meat consumption on the incidence of colon cancer by establishing distributed lag model in Beijing urban area.Methods Incidence of colon cancer in Beijing urban area during 1982～2005 obtained from the Tumor Registration Office and the consumption amount of red meat per year per person in Beijing urban area during 1978～2006 were collected from published statistical annual books.The distributed lag model of incidence of colon cancer was established with these data and the incidence rate could be estimated for the future.Results The amount of red meat per year per person is related to the incidence of colon cancer with a lag period of 14 years.Conclusion The distributed lag model with risk factor is an effective model to estimate the tendency of incidence of colon cancer.The consumption amount of red meat affects the incidence of colon cancer in Beijing urban area started from 5 and the maximal effect became obvious in 14 years.

Key words: colon cancer, distributed lag model, distributed-lag effect