Value of CT findings in predicting transformation of clinical types of COVID-19

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2020.03.004

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To explore the value of artificial intelligence (AI) in computed tomography (CT) prediction for outcome of 2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods The initial and first follow-up CT imaging of 62 cases with common COVID-19 pneumonia diagnosed in Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 25 to February 17, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Ratio of male:female was 31:31. Based on the fact whether patients' conditions had deteriorated into severe type, all the cases were stratified into common type group (51 cases) and deteriorated type group (11cases). Differences of quantitative CT findings by AI in two groups of patients were analyzed. Results Based on initial CT, the percentage of volume of inflammatory lesions to volume of lungs in deteriorated group was 3.3% (1.6%, 7.2%), higher than that of common group. Sensitivity and specificity of diagnose for deteriorated cases reached the best diagnostic value by setting cut-off value as 2.0%. The sensitivity was 72.7%, specificity was 66.7%, and area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.744. On first follow-up CT, significant difference was observed on the change of lesion volume. Compared to common type group, percentage of lesion volume in lungs increased significantly to 10.0% (8.9%, 18.1%). The sensitivity (90.9%) and specificity (78.4%) of diagnose for deteriorated cases reached the best diagnostic value by setting cut-off value of increased percentage of lesions in lungs as 2.65%. Area under ROC was 0.896. Changes on percentage of ground glass opacity and consolidation in lesions were significantly different between the groups (P<0.05). Conclusions AI has a profound value in CT prediction for outcome of COVID-2019. It can help in early warning for severe and critical type of patients. The percentage of volume of lesions in lungs and rapidly increase may predict outcome of COVID-19.

Key words: artificial intelligence, COVID-19, tomography, X-ray computed

CLC Number:

R563.1

Lyu Zhibin, Guan Chunshuang, Yan Shuo, Chen Qiyi, Li Jingjing, Zhang Yujun, Chen Budong, Xie Ruming. Value of CT findings in predicting transformation of clinical types of COVID-19[J]. Journal of Capital Medical University, 2020, 41(3): 340-344.

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