Abstract: The aim is to study on the risk factors of predictive survive of cirrhotic patients with ascites, and to design a scoring system which could determine patient's prognosis. One hundred eighty randomized patients at the end of hospitalization were divided into alive group(n=89)and death group(n=91). Twenty two clinical and laboratory parameters were investigated as predictive risk factors for patients survival. Univariate analysis was made with the χ² test for qualitative variable and independent sample t-test for quantitative variable. Variables reaching statistical significance(P<0.05)were subsequently introduced in Logistic regression to identify the independent risk factors for survive. The methods of statistical analysis were performed with SPSS for WINDOWS statistical package. Results: tweleve clinical and laboratory paramenters, age, GI bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, sydrome of hepatic kinedy, shock, count of ascites WBC and blood WBC, PTA, total bilirubin, serum ALB, sodium concentration and BUN, were closely related to survival of cirrhotic patients with ascites by analysis of univariate. Four independent factors, hepatic encephalopathy(HE), PTA, serum sodium concentration(NA)and BUN, the determined patient′s survive by Logistic regression analysis. A scoring system was designed accroding to the 4 paramenters. The artical score of death was 5. The coincidence rate was 91.7% by retrospective study of 180 cirrhotic patients.

Key words: cirrhosis ascites, risk factor, scoring system