Establishment and validation of 2-year predictive scoring model for patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with superior mesenteric venous thrombosis

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2023.01.016

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To investigate the influencing factors of long-term prognosis of liver cirrhosis complicated with superior mesenteric venous thrombosis (SMVT). Methods The clinical information of 254 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with SMVT diagnosed from December 2016 to March 2020 was collected. Taking March 30, 2019 as the time point, the patients were divided into modeling group (170 cases) and validation group (84 cases). The modeling group was divided into survival group (148 cases) and death group (22 cases) according to the outcome of follow-up for 2 years. The influencing factors of prognosis were analyzed by Logistic regression and the model was established. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve,calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to validate and evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model, while the decision curve analysis was used to evaluate its clinical validity. Results Age(HR=4.625,95% CI:1.493－14.322,P=0.008), neutrophils/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (HR=4.650,95% CI:1.343－16.099,P=0.015) were independent prognostic factors in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with SMVT. Calculation formula of prediction model is PI=－4.753+1.531×age+1.537×NLR. The area under the curve(AUC) of the predictive scoring model was 0.838(95%CI:0.751－0.925), the sensitivity was 86.4%, the specificity was 62.8%; The AUC of internal validation was 0.806, the sensitivity was 81.8%, and the specificity was 79.4%, Kappa=0.408.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed perfect fitting degree (modeling:P=0.494;validation:P=0.128). Decision curve analysis showed a risk threshold of 10% and demonstrated a clinically effective predictive model. Conclusion Age and NLR are independent factors affecting the 2-year prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with SMVT. The model established in this study has certain application value in predicting the 2-year prognosis of such patients.

Key words: liver cirrhosis, superior mesenteric vein embolization, risk factors, prediction model

CLC Number:

R765. 4

Feng Ying, Shi Ke, Wang Xianbo. Establishment and validation of 2-year predictive scoring model for patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with superior mesenteric venous thrombosis[J]. Journal of Capital Medical University, 2023, 44(1): 107-114.

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URL: https://journal03.magtech.org.cn/Jweb_sdykdxxb/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2023.01.016

https://journal03.magtech.org.cn/Jweb_sdykdxxb/EN/Y2023/V44/I1/107

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