Gender differences and the prediction of type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Beijing from 2013 to 2018

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2023.03.002

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To study the incidence of type 1 diabetes （T1DM） among males and females among permanent residents in Beijing from 2013 to 2018. Methods From 2013 to 2018, 4 275 new patients with T1DM were diagnosed in 153 centers in 16 districts of Beijing (representing a permanent population of about 20.12 million people per year). The annual incidence of T1DM and the annual incidence rate with 95% confidence interval (CI) by age group and gender were calculated by using Poisson regression and other methods. The relationship was evaluated between the incidence trend of T1DM and the age and gender. We use the gray prediction model (1, 1) ［GM (1, 1)］ to predict the incidence of T1DM in the future. Results The incidence of T1DM in the permanent population of Beijing increased from 3.10 per 100 000 ［95%CI: 3.10 (2.90, 3.30) ］ to 3.60 per 100 000 ［95%CI: 3.60 (3.56, 3.86) ］ within 6 years. The incidence of T1DM increased in both male and female ［annual percentage change (APC) in male: 3.96%, APC in female: 4.4%, (P<0.05)］. Gender was a risk factor affecting the incidence of T1DM. By 2024, the incidence of new T1DM in Beijing would increase to 4.96 per 100 000 for male, and for female 5.10 per 100 000. Conclusion The incidence of T1DM in Beijing is relatively low, but the incidence of T1DM in both males and females is increasing rapidly. The incidence of males is higher than that of females, but the incidence of females is more obvious, which urgently needs the attention of the society and the government. Further surveillance and research is needed to better understand possible risk factors and develop prevention strategies.

Key words: Beijing, type 1 diabetes （T1DM）, incidence, predicted incidence

CLC Number:

R589

Liu Chang, Guo Moning, Yuan Yingchao, Zheng Jianpeng, Yang Jinkui . Gender differences and the prediction of type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Beijing from 2013 to 2018[J]. Journal of Capital Medical University, 2023, 44(3): 370-374.

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URL: https://journal03.magtech.org.cn/Jweb_sdykdxxb/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-7795.2023.03.002

https://journal03.magtech.org.cn/Jweb_sdykdxxb/EN/Y2023/V44/I3/370

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